Six things to look out for in Hong Kong in the next six months

In the last year we have seen an unprecedented crackdown in Hong Kong on basic rights and freedoms, with nearly every pro-democracy activist in jail, awaiting trial, or in exile. Every week there is a new attack on human rights as Xi Jinping takes a further step to dismantle the city’s autonomy and crush dissent in direct violation of China’s international treaty commitments.

For lawmakers, government officials, and civil society actors, it would be easy to conclude that Hong Kong’s story is over, with the city’s freedoms on a permanent path of decline. However, there are a number of flash-points in the next six months which will bring the crisis in Hong Kong back onto the front-page and into the public’s mind once again.

These developments will have a substantial impact on Hong Kong’s future and offer further evidence of the Chinese Communist Party’s intentions for the region itself. They will also offer activists and the growing international alliance rising in defence of Hong Kong opportunities to push for policy changes, whether that is the introduction of Magnitsky sanctions, the expansion of lifeboat schemes, or the suspension of extradition treaties.

In the next six months we plan to monitor six developments in Hong Kong:

  • The triggering of Article 23 national security legislation.

  • The trial and sentencing of Jimmy Lai.

  • Legislative Council elections under Beijing’s’ new electoral system.

  • The National Security trial of 47 pro-democracy activists.

  • The extension of the Foreign Anti-Sanctions Law to Hong Kong.

  • The continued crackdown on civil society.

You can read our full briefing here, which includes analysis from pro-democracy activists and prominent China analysts.

未來六個月在香港值得關注的六件事

過去一年，我們見證著香港的基本權利和自由前所未有地被嚴重打壓，幾乎所有民主派人士都正被監禁、候審或流亡。每個星期都有新的行動打壓香港的人權，這是因為習近平違反中國對國際條約的承諾，採取進一步的行動破壞香港的自治權，並鎮壓異議人士。

立法者、政府官員和公民社會很容易得出結論，認為香港的故事已經完結，香港的自由將永遠走下坡。然而，未來六個月有幾項值得關注的事件，足以令香港的危機再次成為新聞焦點，以及再次引起公眾的關注。

這些事態發展將為香港的未來帶來深遠的影響，並進一步揭示中國共產黨對該地區的企圖。這些發展亦將為維權人士和日益壯大的國際聯盟提供推動政策變革的機會，包括引入馬格尼茨基制裁、擴大救生艇計劃，以及暫停引渡條約。

在未來的六個月中，我們將主力監察香港六項發展：
• 正在醞釀的 23 條國安法立法
• 黎智英案件的審判
• 新選舉制度下的立法會選舉
• 47 名民運人士在國安法下的審判
• 反外制裁法延伸至香港
• 公民社會面對的持續鎮壓

你可以按此閱讀我們的完整簡報(英文版本)，當中包括民運人士和著名中國事務專家的分析。

ReportsGuest UserHong Kong